caa a22 4500 445800860 CHVBK 20180317145140.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7 Hypothesis on a possible role of El Niño in the occurrence of influenza pandemics [Elektronische Daten] [Adriano Mazzarella, Andrea Giuliacci, Fabrizio Pregliasco] The El Niño phenomenon is the Earth's strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Niño is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Niño event. At present, the next El Niño will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23-27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Mazzarella Adriano Meteorological Observatory, Department of Earth Science, University of Naples Federico II, Largo S. Marcellino, 10 80138, Naples, Italy aut Giuliacci Andrea Meteorological Observatory, Department of Earth Science, University of Naples Federico II, Largo S. Marcellino, 10 80138, Naples, Italy aut Pregliasco Fabrizio Department of Public Health, University of Milan, via Pascal 36, 20123, Milan, Italy aut Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/1-2(2011-08-01), 65-69 0177-798X 105:1-2<65 2011 105 704 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0375-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mazzarella Adriano Meteorological Observatory, Department of Earth Science, University of Naples Federico II, Largo S. Marcellino, 10 80138, Naples, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Giuliacci Andrea Meteorological Observatory, Department of Earth Science, University of Naples Federico II, Largo S. Marcellino, 10 80138, Naples, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Pregliasco Fabrizio Department of Public Health, University of Milan, via Pascal 36, 20123, Milan, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Theoretical and Applied Climatology Springer Vienna 105/1-2(2011-08-01), 65-69 0177-798X 105:1-2<65 2011 105 704 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer