caa a22 4500 445805951 CHVBK 20180317145156.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10611-010-9265-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10611-010-9265-2 Risk calculation and precautionary uncertainty: two configurations within crime assessment [Elektronische Daten] [Noel Klima, Nicholas Dorn, Tom Vander Beken] This paper explores two configurations of thinking about crime amongst law enforcement agencies and private sector security managers: ‘risk calculation' (concerned with everyday, calculable probabilities and impacts and their management) and ‘precautionary uncertainty' (concerned with events that might be incapacitating, yet are not calculable by probability assessments). The paper explores their respective constituent concepts and fields of application in crime assessment, drawing upon qualitative research-in-progress in Belgium. Risk calculation, as applied to crime, starts with past data on routines that link perpetrators with targets that lack capable guardians. Precautionary uncertainty focuses on potential impacts that are highly disabling and potentially wide-spreading (contagion, knock-on effects), asking how such impacts can be contained and recovered from. Risk and uncertainty are shown to be related to ‘rational-instrumental' and ‘deliberative-constitutive' approaches as developed by Fisher's work in the field of law, which offers a meta-narrative in relation to which they can be positioned. Finally, the paper asks if these two crime assessment methods should be seen as distinct or as merging. On the basis of criteria of conceptual sharpness, openness to public debate and justiciability, the authors champion the maintenance of a clear distinction between risk and uncertainty. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2010 Klima Noel Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium aut Dorn Nicholas Criminology Deparment, Erasmus School of Law, Erasmus University Rotterdam, FRG EUR, Postbus 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands aut Vander Beken Tom Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium aut Crime, Law and Social Change Springer Netherlands 55/1(2011-02-01), 15-31 0925-4994 55:1<15 2011 55 10611 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-010-9265-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611-010-9265-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Klima Noel Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Dorn Nicholas Criminology Deparment, Erasmus School of Law, Erasmus University Rotterdam, FRG EUR, Postbus 1738, 3000 DR, Rotterdam, Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vander Beken Tom Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Crime, Law and Social Change Springer Netherlands 55/1(2011-02-01), 15-31 0925-4994 55:1<15 2011 55 10611 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer