caa a22 4500 44581277X CHVBK 20180317145217.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00411-010-0337-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00411-010-0337-6 Multi-model inference of adult and childhood leukaemia excess relative risks based on the Japanese A-bomb survivors mortality data (1950-2000) [Elektronische Daten] [Linda Walsh, Jan Kaiser] Some relatively new issues that augment the usual practice of ignoring model uncertainty, when making inference about parameters of a specific model, are brought to the attention of the radiation protection community here. Nine recently published leukaemia risk models, developed with the Japanese A-bomb epidemiological mortality data, have been included in a model-averaging procedure so that the main conclusions do not depend on just one type of model or statistical test. The models have been centred here at various adult and young ages at exposure, for some short times since exposure, in order to obtain specially computed childhood Excess Relative Risks (ERR) with uncertainties that account for correlations in the fitted parameters associated with the ERR dose-response. The model-averaged ERR at 1Sv was not found to be statistically significant for attained ages of 7 and 12years but was statistically significant for attained ages of 17, 22 and 55years. Consequently, such risks when applied to other situations, such as children in the vicinity of nuclear installations or in estimates of the proportion of childhood leukaemia incidence attributable to background radiation (i.e. low doses for young ages and short times since exposure), are only of very limited value, with uncertainty ranges that include zero risk. For example, assuming a total radiation dose to a 5-year-old child of 10mSv and applying the model-averaged risk at 10mSv for a 7-year-old exposed at 2years of age would result in an ERR=0.33, 95% CI: −0.51 to 1.22. One model (United Nations scientific committee on the effects of atomic radiation report. Volume 1. Annex A: epidemiological studies of radiation and cancer, United Nations, New York, 2006) weighted model-averaged risks of leukaemia most strongly by half of the total unity weighting and is recommended for application in future leukaemia risk assessments that continue to ignore model uncertainty. However, on the basis of the analysis presented here, it is generally recommended to take model uncertainty into account in future risk analyses. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Walsh Linda Department "Radiation Protection and Health”, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany aut Kaiser Jan Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany aut Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Springer-Verlag 50/1(2011-03-01), 21-35 0301-634X 50:1<21 2011 50 411 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-010-0337-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-010-0337-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Walsh Linda Department "Radiation Protection and Health”, Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kaiser Jan Institute of Radiation Protection, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Ingolstädter Landstr. 1, 85764, Oberschleissheim, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Springer-Verlag 50/1(2011-03-01), 21-35 0301-634X 50:1<21 2011 50 411 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer