caa a22 4500 445820322 CHVBK 20180317145242.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00338-010-0708-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00338-010-0708-0 Predicting outbreaks of a climate-driven coral disease in the Great Barrier Reef [Elektronische Daten] [J. Maynard, K. Anthony, C. Harvell, M. Burgman, R. Beeden, H. Sweatman, S. Heron, J. Lamb, B. Willis] Links between anomalously high sea temperatures and outbreaks of coral diseases known as White Syndromes (WS) represent a threat to Indo-Pacific reefs that is expected to escalate in a changing climate. Further advances in understanding disease aetiologies, determining the relative importance of potential risk factors for outbreaks and in trialing management actions are hampered by not knowing where or when outbreaks will occur. Here, we develop a tool to target research and monitoring of WS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The tool is based on an empirical regression model and takes the form of user-friendly interactive ~1.5-km resolution maps. The maps denote locations where long-term monitoring suggests that coral cover exceeds 26% and summer temperature stress (measured by a temperature metric termed the mean positive summer anomaly) is equal to or exceeds that experienced at sites in 2002 where the only severe WS outbreaks documented on the GBR to date were observed. No WS outbreaks were subsequently documented at 45 routinely surveyed sites from 2003 to 2008, and model hindcasts for this period indicate that outbreak likelihood was never high. In 2009, the model indicated that outbreak likelihood was high at north-central GBR sites. The results of the regression model and targeted surveys in 2009 revealed that the threshold host density for an outbreak decreases as thermal stress increases, suggesting that bleaching could be a more important precursor to WS outbreaks than previously anticipated, given that bleaching was severe at outbreak sites in 2002 but not at any of the surveyed sites in 2009. The iterative approach used here has led to an improved understanding of disease causation, will facilitate management responses and can be applied to other coral diseases and/or other regions. Springer-Verlag, 2010 Climate change nationallicence Coral disease nationallicence Great Barrier Reef nationallicence Environmental management nationallicence Outbreaks nationallicence White Syndromes nationallicence Maynard J. Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut Anthony K. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut Harvell C. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA aut Burgman M. Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut Beeden R. Climate Change Group, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 4810, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut Sweatman H. Australian Institute of Marine Science, 4810, Cape Ferguson, QLD, Australia aut Heron S. NOAA Coral Reef Watch, 675 Ross River Road, 4817, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut Lamb J. School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut Willis B. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut Coral Reefs Springer-Verlag 30/2(2011-06-01), 485-495 0722-4028 30:2<485 2011 30 338 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-010-0708-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00338-010-0708-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Maynard J. Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Anthony K. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Harvell C. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, 14853, Ithaca, NY, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Burgman M. Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis, School of Botany, University of Melbourne, 3010, Parkville, VIC, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Beeden R. Climate Change Group, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, 4810, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sweatman H. Australian Institute of Marine Science, 4810, Cape Ferguson, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Heron S. NOAA Coral Reef Watch, 675 Ross River Road, 4817, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lamb J. School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Willis B. ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University of North Queensland, 4811, Townsville, QLD, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Coral Reefs Springer-Verlag 30/2(2011-06-01), 485-495 0722-4028 30:2<485 2011 30 338 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer