caa a22 4500 445838213 CHVBK 20180317145336.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11023-011-9241-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11023-011-9241-3 Confirmation in the Cognitive Sciences: The Problematic Case of Bayesian Models [Elektronische Daten] [Frederick Eberhardt, David Danks] Bayesian models of human learning are becoming increasingly popular in cognitive science. We argue that their purported confirmation largely relies on a methodology that depends on premises that are inconsistent with the claim that people are Bayesian about learning and inference. Bayesian models in cognitive science derive their appeal from their normative claim that the modeled inference is in some sense rational. Standard accounts of the rationality of Bayesian inference imply predictions that an agent selects the option that maximizes the posterior expected utility. Experimental confirmation of the models, however, has been claimed because of groups of agents that "probability match” the posterior. Probability matching only constitutes support for the Bayesian claim if additional unobvious and untested (but testable) assumptions are invoked. The alternative strategy of weakening the underlying notion of rationality no longer distinguishes the Bayesian model uniquely. A new account of rationality—either for inference or for decision-making—is required to successfully confirm Bayesian models in cognitive science. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2011 Bayesian modeling nationallicence Rationality nationallicence Levels of explanation nationallicence Methodology in cognitive science nationallicence Eberhardt Frederick Department of Philosophy, Washington University in St Louis, Wilson 208, Campus Box 1073, One Brookings Drive, 63130, St Louis, MO, USA aut Danks David Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut Minds and Machines Springer Netherlands 21/3(2011-08-01), 389-410 0924-6495 21:3<389 2011 21 11023 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-011-9241-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11023-011-9241-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Eberhardt Frederick Department of Philosophy, Washington University in St Louis, Wilson 208, Campus Box 1073, One Brookings Drive, 63130, St Louis, MO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Danks David Department of Philosophy, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Minds and Machines Springer Netherlands 21/3(2011-08-01), 389-410 0924-6495 21:3<389 2011 21 11023 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer