caa a22 4500 445855193 CHVBK 20180317145426.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10640-011-9457-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10640-011-9457-y A Bayesian Bioeconometric Model of Invasive Species Control: The Case of the Hemlock Woolly Adelgid [Elektronische Daten] [Christopher Moore, Daniel Phaneuf, Walter Thurman] In this article we evaluate a US Forest Service plan to mitigate damages from an invasive insect on public, forested land. We develop a dynamic model of infestation and control to explicitly account for biological interactions, baseline conditions, and uncertainty, thus creating a more complete picture of policy impacts than a static cost benefit analysis could provide. We combine the results of the dynamic model with an empirical study of nonmarket forest benefits to create a bioeconomic model of ecosystem management. Estimating the empirical model in a Bayesian framework allows us to treat the economic coefficients of the dynamic model as random variables. We specify distributions for the biological parameters and examine the effects of both biological and economic uncertainty on the predictive distribution of net benefits. We find that the net benefits of the program are positive, and that uncertainty in the biological model contributes substantially more to the variance of our estimate than does uncertainty over the valuation of the resource. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2011 Bioeconometrics nationallicence Ecosystem services nationallicence Gibbs sampling nationallicence Hemlock woolly adelgid nationallicence Invasive species nationallicence Nonmarket valuation nationallicence Moore Christopher National Center for Environmental Economics, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, MC 1809, 20460, Washington, DC, USA aut Phaneuf Daniel Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA aut Thurman Walter Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA aut Environmental and Resource Economics Springer Netherlands 50/1(2011-09-01), 1-26 0924-6460 50:1<1 2011 50 10640 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9457-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-011-9457-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moore Christopher National Center for Environmental Economics, US Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, MC 1809, 20460, Washington, DC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Phaneuf Daniel Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Thurman Walter Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Environmental and Resource Economics Springer Netherlands 50/1(2011-09-01), 1-26 0924-6460 50:1<1 2011 50 10640 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer