caa a22 4500 445859040 CHVBK 20180608132847.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10290-010-0076-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10290-010-0076-4 Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB [Elektronische Daten] [Jan-Egbert Sturm, Jakob De Haan] Nowadays, it is widely believed that greater disclosure and clarity over policy may lead to greater predictability of central bank actions. We examine whether communication by the European Central Bank (ECB) adds information compared to the information provided by a Taylor rule model in which real-time expected inflation and output growth are used. We use five indicators of ECB communication that are all based on the ECB President's introductory statement at the press conference following an ECB policy meeting. Our results suggest that even though the indicators are sometimes quite different from one another, they add information that helps predict the next policy decision of the ECB. Furthermore, also when the interbank rate is included in our Taylor rule model, the ECB communication indicators remain significant. The Author(s), 2010 ECB nationallicence Central bank nationallicence Communication nationallicence Taylor rule nationallicence Sturm Jan-Egbert KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland aut De Haan Jakob KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland aut Review of World Economics Springer-Verlag 147/1(2011-04-01), 41-58 1610-2878 147:1<41 2011 147 10290 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-010-0076-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290-010-0076-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sturm Jan-Egbert KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- De Haan Jakob KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Review of World Economics Springer-Verlag 147/1(2011-04-01), 41-58 1610-2878 147:1<41 2011 147 10290 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence SWISSBIB 445859040 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer