caa a22 4500 445883804 CHVBK 20180317145553.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10157-010-0393-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10157-010-0393-x A simple model for predicting incidence of chronic kidney disease in HIV-infected patients [Elektronische Daten] [Minoru Ando, Naoki Yanagisawa, Atsushi Ajisawa, Ken Tsuchiya, Kosaku Nitta] Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have concurrent risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD), but there are no prediction models to quantify the effect of multiple factors on the development of incident CKD. Methods: A 1-year prognostic model was developed using prospective data between January 2008 and March 2009, from a derivation cohort of 623 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) exceeding 60ml/min/1.73m2 at baseline. Incident CKD was defined as both an eGFR falling below 60ml/min/1.73m2 and a decrease in eGFR of at least 25% during the period. Continuous variables were divided into categories using the mean value of the whole cohort. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine baseline categories associated with incident CKD. The model was tested with prospective data between April 2009 and March 2010, from a validation cohort of 534 patients exceeding 60ml/min/1.73m2 at baseline, consisting of part of the derivation cohort and newly enrolled patients. The discriminative ability was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AROC) curve. Results: Eighteen subjects developed incident CKD (2.9%). In a multivariate logistic regression analysis of the derivation cohort, 5 variables (age, CD4 cell count, diabetes, proteinuria, and eGFR at baseline) were independently associated with the incidence of CKD. The AROC curve was 0.841 (95% CI 0.799-0.894) in the validation cohort. Conclusion: This prediction model may be a useful tool for identifying HIV-infected individuals with a high likelihood of new-onset CKD. Japanese Society of Nephrology, 2011 Diabetes nationallicence Proteinuria nationallicence CD4 cell count nationallicence Scoring model nationallicence Ando Minoru Department of Nephrology, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, 3-18-22 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-Ku, 113-0021, Tokyo, Japan aut Yanagisawa Naoki Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan aut Ajisawa Atsushi Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan aut Tsuchiya Ken Department IV of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan aut Nitta Kosaku Department IV of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan aut Clinical and Experimental Nephrology Springer Japan 15/2(2011-04-01), 242-247 1342-1751 15:2<242 2011 15 10157 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10157-010-0393-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10157-010-0393-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ando Minoru Department of Nephrology, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, 3-18-22 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-Ku, 113-0021, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yanagisawa Naoki Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ajisawa Atsushi Department of Infectious Diseases, Tokyo Metropolitan Komagome Hospital, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tsuchiya Ken Department IV of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nitta Kosaku Department IV of Internal Medicine, Tokyo Women's Medical University, Tokyo, Japan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Clinical and Experimental Nephrology Springer Japan 15/2(2011-04-01), 242-247 1342-1751 15:2<242 2011 15 10157 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer