caa a22 4500 445887257 CHVBK 20180317145603.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10726-010-9201-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10726-010-9201-y O'Leary Daniel University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business, 90089-0441, Los Angeles, CA, USA aut The Emergence of Individual Knowledge in a Group Setting: Mitigating Cognitive Fallacies [Elektronische Daten] [Daniel O'Leary] Research in psychology has found that subjects regularly exhibit a conjunction fallacy in probability judgments. Additional research has led to the finding of other fallacies in probability judgment, including disjunction and conditional fallacies. Such analyses of judgments are critical because of the substantial amount of probability judgment done in accounting, business and organizational settings. However, most previous research has been conducted in the environment of a single decision maker. Since business and other organizational environments also employ groups, it is important to determine the impact of groups on such cognitive fallacies. This paper finds that groups substantially mitigate the impact of probability judgment fallacies among the sample of subjects investigated. The key finding of this paper is the analysis of the apparent manner in which groups make such decisions. A statistical analysis, based on a binomial distribution, suggests that groups investigated here did not use consensus. Instead, if any one member of the group has correct knowledge about the probability relationships, then the group uses that knowledge and does not exhibit fallacy in probability judgment. Having a computational model of the group decision making process provides a basis for developing computational models that can be used to simulate "mirror worlds” of reality or model decision making in real world settings. Springer Science+Business Media B.V., 2010 Group judgments nationallicence Knowledge set nationallicence Consensus judgment nationallicence Group Decision and Negotiation Springer Netherlands 20/1(2011-01-01), 3-18 0926-2644 20:1<3 2011 20 10726 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-010-9201-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10726-010-9201-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- O'Leary Daniel University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business, 90089-0441, Los Angeles, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Group Decision and Negotiation Springer Netherlands 20/1(2011-01-01), 3-18 0926-2644 20:1<3 2011 20 10726 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer