caa a22 4500 445890533 CHVBK 20180317145614.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170323e20110501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11116-010-9312-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11116-010-9312-y Chatterjee Kiron Centre for Transport and Society, University of the West of England, BS16 1QY, Bristol, UK aut Modelling the dynamics of bus use in a changing travel environment using panel data [Elektronische Daten] [Kiron Chatterjee] Panel data offers the potential to represent the influence on travel choices of changing circumstances, past history and persistent individual differences (unobserved heterogeneity). A four-wave panel survey collected data on the travel choices of residents before and after the introduction of a new bus rapid transit service. The data shows gradual changes to bus use over the four waves, implying time was required for residents to become aware of the new service and to adapt to it. Ordered response models are estimated for bus use over the survey period. The results show that the influence of level of service (LOS) is underestimated if unobserved heterogeneity is not taken into account. The delayed response to the new service is able to be well represented by including LOS as a lagged variable. Current bus use is found to be conditioned on past bus use, but with additional influence of lagged LOS and unobserved heterogeneity. It is shown how different model specifications generate different evolution patterns with the most realistic predictions arising from a model which takes into account lagged responses to change in LOS and unobserved heterogeneity. The paper demonstrates the feasibility of developing panel data models that can be applied to forecasting the effect of interventions in the travel environment. Longer panels—encompassing periods of both stability and change—are required to support future efforts at modelling travel choice dynamics. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC., 2010 Travel mode choice nationallicence Dynamics nationallicence Panel data nationallicence Unobserved heterogeneity nationallicence State dependence nationallicence Initial conditions nationallicence Transportation Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 38/3(2011-05-01), 487-509 0049-4488 38:3<487 2011 38 11116 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9312-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-010-9312-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Chatterjee Kiron Centre for Transport and Society, University of the West of England, BS16 1QY, Bristol, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Transportation Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 38/3(2011-05-01), 487-509 0049-4488 38:3<487 2011 38 11116 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer