caa a22 4500 46317075X CHVBK 20180406164812.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170326e20070901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1 Bouchard Martin Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, 2220 LeFrak Hall, 20742, College Park, MD, USA aut A Capture-Recapture Model to Estimate the Size of Criminal Populations and the Risks of Detection in a Marijuana Cultivation Industry [Elektronische Daten] [Martin Bouchard] Originally developed in biology, capture-recapture methodologies have increasingly been integrated into the study of human populations to provide estimates of the size of "hidden populations.” This paper explores the validity of one capture-recapture model—Zelterman's (1988) truncated Poisson estimator—used to estimate the size of the marijuana cultivation industry in Quebec, Canada. The capture-recapture analysis draws on arrest data to estimate the number of marijuana growers "at risk of being arrested” for a period of five years (1998-2002). Estimates are provided for growers involved in two different techniques: (1) soil-based growing, and (2) hydroponics. In addition, the study develops an original method to estimate the prevalence of cultivation sites "at risk of detection.” A first set of findings shows that the cultivation industry is substantial; the estimated prevalence of growers compares to estimates of marijuana dealers in the province. Capture-recapture estimates are also used to compare the risks of being arrested for different types of offenders. Results indicate that hydroponic growers—those involved in large scale and sophisticated sites—face lower enforcement-related risks than growers involved in smaller enterprises. The significance of these findings is discussed in the context of the widespread development, both in Europe and in North America, of a successful domestic production-driven, rather than importation-driven, marijuana trade. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2007 Marijuana cultivation nationallicence Risks of arrest nationallicence Risks of detection nationallicence Size of criminal populations nationallicence Capture-recapture methodologies nationallicence Journal of Quantitative Criminology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers; http://www.springer-ny.com 23/3(2007-09-01), 221-241 0748-4518 23:3<221 2007 23 10940 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-007-9027-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Bouchard Martin Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice, University of Maryland, 2220 LeFrak Hall, 20742, College Park, MD, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Quantitative Criminology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers; http://www.springer-ny.com 23/3(2007-09-01), 221-241 0748-4518 23:3<221 2007 23 10940 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer