caa a22 4500 463170806 CHVBK 20180406164812.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170326e20071201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10940-007-9034-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10940-007-9034-2 Bhati Avinash Justice Policy Center, Urban Institute, 2100 M Street, NW, 20037, Washington, DC, USA aut Estimating the Number of Crimes Averted by Incapacitation: An Information Theoretic Approach [Elektronische Daten] [Avinash Bhati] This paper presents an information theoretic approach for estimating the number of crimes averted by incapacitation. It first develops models of the criminal history accumulation process of a sample of prison releasees using their official recorded arrest histories prior to incarceration. The models yield individual offending trajectories that are then used to compute the number of crimes these releasees could reasonably have been expected to commit had they not been incarcerated—the counterfactual of interest. The models also afford the opportunity to conduct a limited set of policy simulations. The data reveal a fair amount of variation among individuals both in terms of the number of crimes averted by their incarceration and the responsiveness of these estimates to longer incarceration terms. Estimates were found not to vary substantially across demographic groups defined by offender race, gender, or ethnicity; variations across states and offense types were more pronounced. Implications of the findings and promising avenues for future research are discussed. Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 2007 Incapacitation nationallicence Information theory nationallicence Individual offending trajectories nationallicence Journal of Quantitative Criminology Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 23/4(2007-12-01), 355-375 0748-4518 23:4<355 2007 23 10940 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-007-9034-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-007-9034-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Bhati Avinash Justice Policy Center, Urban Institute, 2100 M Street, NW, 20037, Washington, DC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Quantitative Criminology Springer US; http://www.springer-ny.com 23/4(2007-12-01), 355-375 0748-4518 23:4<355 2007 23 10940 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer