caa a22 4500 463172159 CHVBK 20180406164816.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170326e20070701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10950-007-9053-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10950-007-9053-3 Estimating the confidence of earthquake damage scenarios: examples from a logic tree approach [Elektronische Daten] [S. Molina, C. Lindholm] Earthquake loss estimation is now becoming an important tool in mitigation planning, where the loss modeling usually is based on a parameterized mathematical representation of the damage problem. In parallel with the development and improvement of such models, the question of sensitivity to parameters that carry uncertainties becomes increasingly important. We have to this end applied the capacity spectrum method (CSM) as described in FEMA HAZUS-MH. Multi-hazard Loss Estimation Methodology, Earthquake Model, Advanced Engineering Building Module. Federal Emergency Management Agency, United States (2003), and investigated the effects of selected parameters. The results demonstrate that loss scenarios may easily vary by as much as a factor of two because of simple parameter variations. Of particular importance for the uncertainty is the construction quality of the structure. These results represent a warning against simple acceptance of unbounded damage scenarios and strongly support the development of computational methods in which parameter uncertainties are propagated through the computations to facilitate confidence bounds for the damage scenarios. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2007 Seismic risk nationallicence Vulnerability nationallicence Damage scenarios nationallicence Uncertainties nationallicence Capacity spectrum method nationallicence Molina S. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Alicante, Campus S. Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03690, Alicante, Spain aut Lindholm C. NORSAR/ICG, P.O. Box 53, 2027, Kjeller, Norway aut Journal of Seismology Kluwer Academic Publishers 11/3(2007-07-01), 299-310 1383-4649 11:3<299 2007 11 10950 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-007-9053-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10950-007-9053-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Molina S. Departamento de Ciencias de la Tierra y del Medio Ambiente, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Alicante, Campus S. Vicente del Raspeig s/n, 03690, Alicante, Spain aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lindholm C. NORSAR/ICG, P.O. Box 53, 2027, Kjeller, Norway aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Seismology Kluwer Academic Publishers 11/3(2007-07-01), 299-310 1383-4649 11:3<299 2007 11 10950 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer