caa a22 4500 465769667 CHVBK 20180323111925.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170327e19900601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00145784 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00145784 Artzrouni M. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Loyola University, 70118, New Orleans, LA, USA aut Projections of the HIV/AIDS epidemic for homosexual/bisexual men in France, the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom [Elektronische Daten] [M. Artzrouni] Projections of the spread of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of its etiologic agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are presented for homosexual/bisexual men in the three European countries with the largest caseloads. The results suggest that the HIV epidemic for French, German, and British homosexual/bisexual men has peaked around 1985 and declined rapidly thereafter. By the end of the century, and for a median incubation period of AIDS equal to 8 years, the total numbers infected in these groups are predicted to be about 31,200, 10,400 and 9,800, respectively. (These estimates more than double if the median incubation period is 12 years). In all cases the annual incidence of AIDS will reach its maximum in the early to mid-1990s. However, the AIDS epidemic will be protracted because of the long incubation period. Gustav Fischer, 1990 Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) nationallicence Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) nationallicence Projections nationallicence France nationallicence Federal Republic of Germany nationallicence United Kingdom nationallicence European Journal of Epidemiology Kluwer Academic Publishers 6/2(1990-06-01), 124-135 0393-2990 6:2<124 1990 6 10654 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00145784 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00145784 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Artzrouni M. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Loyola University, 70118, New Orleans, LA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- European Journal of Epidemiology Kluwer Academic Publishers 6/2(1990-06-01), 124-135 0393-2990 6:2<124 1990 6 10654 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer