caa a22 4500 467885257 CHVBK 20180406152732.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10021-006-0017-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10021-006-0017-1 Loss of Resilience, Crisis, and Institutional Change: Lessons from an Intensive Agricultural System in Southeastern Australia [Elektronische Daten] [John Anderies, Paul Ryan, Brian Walker] Linked social-ecological systems in which surprise and crisis are interspersed with periods of stability and predictability are inherently difficult to manage. This condition, coupled with the legacies of past management actions, typically leaves policy and decision makers few options other than to incrementally adapt and reinforce the current trajectory of the system. Decision making becomes increasingly reactive and incremental as the system moves from one crisis to another. Eventually the system loses its capacity to cope with perturbations and surprise. Using a combination of dynamical-systems modeling and historical analysis, we studied a process of this kind as it developed in the Goulburn Broken Catchment in southeastern Australia over the past 150 years. Using the model to simulate trajectories of the biohydrological system, we correlate the state of the physical system to historical events and management action. We show how sequential management decisions have eroded the resilience of the system (its ability to cope with shocks and surprises) and reduced options for future change. Using the model in a forward-looking mode, we explore future management options and their implications for the resilience of the system. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 irrigation nationallicence management nationallicence salinity nationallicence resilience nationallicence agriculture nationallicence crisis nationallicence southeastern Australia nationallicence Anderies John School of Human Evolution and Social Change and International Institute for Sustainability, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874701, 85287, Tempe, AZ, USA aut Ryan Paul CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, G.P.O. Box 284, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia aut Walker Brian CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, G.P.O. Box 284, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia aut Ecosystems Springer-Verlag; www.springer-ny.com 9/6(2006-09-01), 865-878 1432-9840 9:6<865 2006 9 10021 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-006-0017-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-006-0017-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Anderies John School of Human Evolution and Social Change and International Institute for Sustainability, Arizona State University, P.O. Box 874701, 85287, Tempe, AZ, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ryan Paul CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, G.P.O. Box 284, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Walker Brian CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, G.P.O. Box 284, 2601, Canberra, ACT, Australia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ecosystems Springer-Verlag; www.springer-ny.com 9/6(2006-09-01), 865-878 1432-9840 9:6<865 2006 9 10021 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer