caa a22 4500 467885869 CHVBK 20180406152734.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20061201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10021-006-0173-3 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10021-006-0173-3 The Influence of Previous Mountain Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Activity on the 1988 Yellowstone Fires [Elektronische Daten] [Heather Lynch, Roy Renkin, Robert Crabtree, Paul Moorcroft] We examined the historical record of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) activity within Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, for the 25-years period leading up to the 1988 Yellowstone fires (1963-86) to determine how prior beetle activity and the resulting tree mortality affected the spatial pattern of the 1988 Yellowstone fires. To obtain accurate estimates of our model parameters, we used a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to account for the high degree of spatial autocorrelation inherent to forest fires. Our final model included three statistically significant variables: drought, aspect, and sustained mountain pine beetle activity in the period 1972-75. Of the two major mountain pine beetle outbreaks that preceded the 1988 fires, the earlier outbreak (1972-75) was significantly correlated with the burn pattern, whereas the more recent one (1980-83) was not. Although regional drought and high winds were responsible for the large scale of this event, the analysis indicates that mountain pine beetle activity in the mid-1970s increased the odds of burning in 1988 by 11% over unaffected areas. Although relatively small in magnitude, this effect, combined with the effects of aspect and spatial variation in drought, had a dramatic impact on the spatial pattern of burned and unburned areas in 1988. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2007 Yellowstone National Park nationallicence l988 Yellowstone fires nationallicence fire ecology nationallicence mountain pine beetle nationallicence insect-fire interactions nationallicence Markov chain Monte Carlo nationallicence Lynch Heather Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, 02138, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA aut Renkin Roy Yellowstone Center for Resources, Yellowstone National Park, 82190, Wyoming, USA aut Crabtree Robert Yellowstone Ecological Research Center, 2048 Analysis Drive, Suite B, 59715, Bozeman, Montana, USA aut Moorcroft Paul Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, 02138, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA aut Ecosystems Springer-Verlag; www.springer-ny.com 9/8(2006-12-01), 1318-1327 1432-9840 9:8<1318 2006 9 10021 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-006-0173-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-006-0173-3 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lynch Heather Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, 02138, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Renkin Roy Yellowstone Center for Resources, Yellowstone National Park, 82190, Wyoming, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Crabtree Robert Yellowstone Ecological Research Center, 2048 Analysis Drive, Suite B, 59715, Bozeman, Montana, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Moorcroft Paul Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard University Herbaria, Harvard University, 22 Divinity Avenue, 02138, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Ecosystems Springer-Verlag; www.springer-ny.com 9/8(2006-12-01), 1318-1327 1432-9840 9:8<1318 2006 9 10021 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer