caa a22 4500 467896046 CHVBK 20180406152804.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9 Clements Michael Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK aut Evaluating the survey of professional forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts [Elektronische Daten] [Michael Clements] Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Density forecasts nationallicence Event probabilities nationallicence Encompassing nationallicence SPF inflation forecasts nationallicence Empirical Economics Springer-Verlag 31/1(2006-03-01), 49-64 0377-7332 31:1<49 2006 31 181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0014-9 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Clements Michael Department of Economics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL, Coventry, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Empirical Economics Springer-Verlag 31/1(2006-03-01), 49-64 0377-7332 31:1<49 2006 31 181 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer