caa a22 4500 467896097 CHVBK 20180406152804.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries? [Elektronische Daten] [Herbert Brücker, Boriss Siliverstovs] This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set. Springer-Verlag, 2006 International migration nationallicence Panel data nationallicence Forecasting nationallicence Brücker Herbert Department for International Comparisons and European Integration, Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Weddigenstr. 20-22, 90327, Nürnberg, Germany aut Siliverstovs Boriss DIW Berlin, Königin-Luise Straβe 5, 14195, Berlin, Germany aut Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/3(2006-09-01), 735-754 0377-7332 31:3<735 2006 31 181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0049-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Brücker Herbert Department for International Comparisons and European Integration, Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Weddigenstr. 20-22, 90327, Nürnberg, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Siliverstovs Boriss DIW Berlin, Königin-Luise Straβe 5, 14195, Berlin, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/3(2006-09-01), 735-754 0377-7332 31:3<735 2006 31 181 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer