caa a22 4500 467896100 CHVBK 20180406152804.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00181-005-0050-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00181-005-0050-5 Growth and inflation forecasts for Germany a panel-based assessment of accuracy and efficiency [Elektronische Daten] [Jörg Döpke, Ulrich Fritsche] We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly—but not strongly—efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by Hansen et al. (2004), we find that, besides the effect of diverging forecasting dates, no other substantial differences in forecasting quality among forecasters exist. Nevertheless, on the basis of a direction-of-change analysis we argue that it is not always advisable to listen to the majority of forecasters. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Forecast error evaluation nationallicence Germany nationallicence Döpke Jörg Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60047, Frankfurt, Germany aut Fritsche Ulrich German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Königin-Luise-Strasse 5, 14195, Berlin, Germany aut Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/3(2006-09-01), 777-798 0377-7332 31:3<777 2006 31 181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0050-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0050-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Döpke Jörg Deutsche Bundesbank, Economics department, Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14, 60047, Frankfurt, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Fritsche Ulrich German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Königin-Luise-Strasse 5, 14195, Berlin, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/3(2006-09-01), 777-798 0377-7332 31:3<777 2006 31 181 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer