caa a22 4500 467896380 CHVBK 20180406152805.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060601xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8 Ribba Antonio Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Università di Modena, Viale Berengario, 51, 41110, Modena, Italy aut The joint dynamics of inflation, unemployment and interest rate in the United States since 1980 [Elektronische Daten] [Antonio Ribba] In this paper, by using a combination of long-run and short-run restrictions, we identify a small structural VECM which includes inflation, unemployment and the federal funds rate and study the dynamic interactions at different frequencies among these variables. Our results show that: (a) in accordance with the traditional view of economic fluctuations, aggregate demand shocks and monetary policy shocks push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run; (b) the permanent supply shock explains the long-run movement of inflation and unemployment. These conclusions are at odds with the prediction of "natural-rate” models but are consistent with the idea of a propagation mechanism which links productivity shocks to inflation and unemployment at medium and low frequencies. Thus, with respect to some recent studies (e.g. Beyer and Farmer, ECB Working Paper 121, 2002, and Ireland, J Monet Econ 44:279-291, 1999), we offer a different interpretation of the low-frequency comovements between inflation and unemployment characterizing the US economy in the last decades. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Structural var nationallicence Cointegration nationallicence Inflation nationallicence Unemployment nationallicence Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/2(2006-06-01), 497-511 0377-7332 31:2<497 2006 31 181 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-005-0031-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Ribba Antonio Dipartimento di Economia Politica, Università di Modena, Viale Berengario, 51, 41110, Modena, Italy aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Empirical Economics Physica-Verlag 31/2(2006-06-01), 497-511 0377-7332 31:2<497 2006 31 181 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer