caa a22 4500 467909784 CHVBK 20180406152846.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10645-006-0002-2 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10645-006-0002-2 Forecasting Inflation: An Art as Well as a Science! [Elektronische Daten] [Ard Reijer, Peter Vlaar] Summary: In this study, we build two forecasting models to predict inflation Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Netherlands and for the euro area. The models provide point forecasts and prediction intervals for both the components of the HICP and the aggregated HICP -index itself. Both models are small-scale linear time series models allowing for long-run equilibrium relationships between HICP components and other variables, notably the hourly wage rate and the import or producer prices. The model for the Netherlands is used to generate the Dutch inflation projections for the eurosystem's Narrow Inflation Projection Exercise (NIPE). The recursive forecast errors for several forecast horizons are evaluated for all models, and are found to outperform a naive forecast and optimal AR models. Moreover, the same result holds for the Dutch NIPE projections, which have been provided quarterly since 1999. The aggregation method to predict total HICP inflation generally outperforms the direct method, except for long horizons in the case of the Netherlands. Springer, 2006 aggregation nationallicence model selection time series models nationallicence C32 nationallicence C43 nationallicence C52 nationallicence C53 nationallicence Reijer Ard Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank, P.O. Box 98, 1000 AB, Amsterdam, the Netherlands aut Vlaar Peter Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank, P.O. Box 98, 1000 AB, Amsterdam, the Netherlands aut De Economist Kluwer Academic Publishers 154/1(2006-03-01), 19-40 0013-063X 154:1<19 2006 154 10645 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-006-0002-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10645-006-0002-2 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Reijer Ard Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank, P.O. Box 98, 1000 AB, Amsterdam, the Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Vlaar Peter Research Division, De Nederlandsche Bank, P.O. Box 98, 1000 AB, Amsterdam, the Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- De Economist Kluwer Academic Publishers 154/1(2006-03-01), 19-40 0013-063X 154:1<19 2006 154 10645 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer