caa a22 4500 467917701 CHVBK 20180406152907.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1 Emissions, Concentrations, & Temperature: A Time Series Analysis [Elektronische Daten] [Robert Kaufmann, Heikki Kauppi, James Stock] We use recent advances in time series econometrics to estimate the relation among emissions of CO2 and CH4, the concentration of these gases, and global surface temperature. These models are estimated and specified to answer two questions; (1) does human activity affect global surface temperature and; (2) does global surface temperature affect the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and/or methane. Regression results provide direct evidence for a statistically meaningful relation between radiative forcing and global surface temperature. A simple model based on these results indicates that greenhouse gases and anthropogenic sulfur emissions are largely responsible for the change in temperature over the last 130 years. The regression results also indicate that increases in surface temperature since 1870 have changed the flow of carbon dioxide to and from the atmosphere in a way that increases its atmospheric concentration. Finally, the regression results for methane hint that higher temperatures may increase its atmospheric concentration, but this effect is not estimated precisely. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Kaufmann Robert Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA aut Kauppi Heikki Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Arkadiankatu 7, P.O. Box 17, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland aut Stock James Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, MA, USA aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 77/3-4(2006-08-01), 249-278 0165-0009 77:3-4<249 2006 77 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9062-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kaufmann Robert Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kauppi Heikki Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Arkadiankatu 7, P.O. Box 17, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stock James Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 77/3-4(2006-08-01), 249-278 0165-0009 77:3-4<249 2006 77 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer