caa a22 4500 467917833 CHVBK 20180406152908.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060801xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0 The Relationship Between Radiative Forcing and Temperature: What Do Statistical Analyses of the Instrumental Temperature Record Measure? [Elektronische Daten] [Robert Kaufmann, Heikki Kauppi, James Stock] Comparing statistical estimates for the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 with those generated by climate models begs the question, is the long-run temperature effect of doubled CO2 that is estimated from the instrumental temperature record using statistical techniques consistent with the transient climate response, the equilibrium climate sensitivity, or the effective climate sensitivity. Here, we attempt to answer the question, what do statistical analyses of the observational record measure, by using these same statistical techniques to estimate the temperature effect of a doubling in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide from seventeen simulations run for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2 (CMIP2). The results indicate that the temperature effect estimated by the statistical methodology is consistent with the transient climate response and that this consistency is relatively unaffected by sample size or the increase in radiative forcing in the sample. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Kaufmann Robert Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA aut Kauppi Heikki Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Arkadiankatu 7, P.O. Box 17, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland aut Stock James Deparment of Economics, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, MA, USA aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 77/3-4(2006-08-01), 279-289 0165-0009 77:3-4<279 2006 77 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9063-0 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kaufmann Robert Center for Energy & Environmental Studies, Boston University, 02215, Boston, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kauppi Heikki Department of Economics, University of Helsinki, Arkadiankatu 7, P.O. Box 17, FIN-00014, Helsinki, Finland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stock James Deparment of Economics, Harvard University, 02138, Cambridge, MA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 77/3-4(2006-08-01), 279-289 0165-0009 77:3-4<279 2006 77 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer