caa a22 4500 467918031 CHVBK 20180406152908.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-006-6340-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-006-6340-x An Ensemble Seasonal Forecast of Human Cases of St. Louis Encephalitis in Florida Based on Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasts [Elektronische Daten] [Jeffrey Shaman, Jonathan Day, Marc Stieglitz, Stephen Zebiak, Mark Cane] We present a method for the ensemble seasonal prediction of human St. Louis encephalitis (SLE) incidence and SLE virus transmission in Florida. We combine empirical relationships between modeled land surface wetness and the incidence of human clinical cases of SLE and modeled land surface wetness and the occurrence of SLE virus transmission throughout south Florida with a previously developed method for generating ensemble, seasonal hydrologic forecasts. Retrospective seasonal forecasts of human SLE incidence are made for Indian River County, Florida, and forecast skill is demonstrated for 2-4 months. A sample seasonal forecast of human SLE incidence is presented. This study establishes the skill of a potential component of an operational SLE forecast system in south Florida, one that provides information well in advance of transmission and may enable early interventions that reduce transmission. Future development of this method and operational application of these forecasts are discussed. The methodology also will be applied to West Nile virus monitoring and forecasting. Springer Science + Business Media, Inc., 2006 Shaman Jeffrey College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 COAS Admin Building, 97331, Corvallis, OR aut Day Jonathan Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Florida aut Stieglitz Marc School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia aut Zebiak Stephen International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York aut Cane Mark Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Columbia aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 75/4(2006-04-01), 495-511 0165-0009 75:4<495 2006 75 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6340-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-6340-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shaman Jeffrey College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, 104 COAS Admin Building, 97331, Corvallis, OR aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Day Jonathan Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences, University of Florida, Florida aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stieglitz Marc School of Civil and Environmental Engineering and School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Georgia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Zebiak Stephen International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, New York aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cane Mark Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, Columbia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 75/4(2006-04-01), 495-511 0165-0009 75:4<495 2006 75 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer