caa a22 4500 46791804X CHVBK 20180406152908.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-005-9025-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-005-9025-y Elicitation of Expert Judgments of Aerosol Forcing [Elektronische Daten] [M. Morgan, Peter Adams, David Keith] A group of twenty-four leading atmospheric and climate scientists provided subjective probability distributions that represent their current judgment about the value of planetary average direct and indirect radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols at the top of the atmosphere. Separate estimates were obtained for the direct aerosol effect, the semi-direct aerosol effect, cloud brightness (first aerosol indirect effect), and cloud lifetime/distribution (second aerosol indirect effect). Estimates were also obtained for total planetary average forcing at the top of the atmosphere and for surface forcing. Consensus was strongest among the experts in their assessments of the direct aerosol effect and the cloud brightness indirect effect. Forcing from the semi-direct effect was thought to be small (absolute values of all but one of the experts' best estimates were ≤0.5 W/m2). There was not agreement about the sign of the best estimate of the semi-direct effect, and the uncertainty ranges some experts gave for this effect did not overlap those given by others. All best estimates of total aerosol forcing were negative, with values ranging between −0.25 W/m2 and −2.1 W/m2. The range of uncertainty that a number of experts associated with their estimates, especially those for total aerosol forcing and for surface forcing, was often much larger than that suggested in 2001 by the IPCC Working Group 1 summary figure (IPCC, 2001). Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Morgan M. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut Adams Peter Department of Engineering and Public Policy and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut Keith David Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering and Department of Economics, University of Calgary, T2N 1N4, Calgary, Alberta, Canada aut Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 75/1-2(2006-03-01), 195-214 0165-0009 75:1-2<195 2006 75 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9025-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9025-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Morgan M. Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Adams Peter Department of Engineering and Public Policy and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, 15213, Pittsburgh, PA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Keith David Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering and Department of Economics, University of Calgary, T2N 1N4, Calgary, Alberta, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 75/1-2(2006-03-01), 195-214 0165-0009 75:1-2<195 2006 75 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer