caa a22 4500 46791849X CHVBK 20180406152909.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20061201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 Going to the Extremes [Elektronische Daten] An Intercomparison of Model-Simulated Historical and Future Changes in Extreme Events [Claudia Tebaldi, Katharinec Hayhoe, Julie Arblaster, Gerald Meehl] Projections of changes in climate extremes are critical to assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Modeling advances now provide the opportunity of utilizing global general circulation models (GCMs) for projections of extreme temperature and precipitation indicators. We analyze historical and future simulations of ten such indicators as derived from an ensemble of 9 GCMs contributing to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), under a range of emissions scenarios. Our focus is on the consensus from the GCM ensemble, in terms of direction and significance of the changes, at the global average and geographical scale. The climate extremes described by the ten indices range from heat-wave frequency to frost-day occurrence, from dry-spell length to heavy rainfall amounts. Historical trends generally agree with previous observational studies, providing a basic sense of reliability for the GCM simulations. Individual model projections for the 21st century across the three scenarios examined are in agreement in showing greater temperature extremes consistent with a warmer climate. For any specific temperature index, minor differences appear in the spatial distribution of the changes across models and across scenarios, while substantial differences appear in the relative magnitude of the trends under different emissions rates. Depictions of a wetter world and greater precipitation intensity emerge unequivocally in the global averages of most of the precipitation indices. However, consensus and significance are less strong when regional patterns are considered. This analysis provides a first overview of projected changes in climate extremes from the IPCC-AR4 model ensemble, and has significant implications with regard to climate projections for impact assessments. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Tebaldi Claudia Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO BOX 3000, 80301, Boulder, CO, USA aut Hayhoe Katharinec Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA aut Arblaster Julie Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA aut Meehl Gerald Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 79/3-4(2006-12-01), 185-211 0165-0009 79:3-4<185 2006 79 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Tebaldi Claudia Institute for the Study of Society and Environment, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), PO BOX 3000, 80301, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hayhoe Katharinec Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Arblaster Julie Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Meehl Gerald Climate and Global Dynamics Division, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 79/3-4(2006-12-01), 185-211 0165-0009 79:3-4<185 2006 79 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence SWISSBIB 462688488 BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer