caa a22 4500 467918562 CHVBK 20180406152910.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20061101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-006-9076-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-006-9076-8 Challenges posed by and approaches to the study of seasonal-to-decadal climate variability [Elektronische Daten] [Cornelia Schwierz, Christof Appenzeller, Huw Davies, Mark Liniger, Wolfgang Müller, Thomas Stocker, Masakazu Yoshimori] The tasks of providing multi-decadal climate projections and seasonal plus sub-seasonal climate predictions are of significant societal interest and pose major scientific challenges. An outline is presented of the challenges posed by, and the approaches adopted to, tracing the possible evolution of the climate system on these various time-scales. First an overview is provided of the nature of the climate system's natural internal variations and the uncertainty arising from the complexity and non-linearity of the system. Thereafter consideration is given sequentially to the range of extant approaches adopted to study and derive multi-decadal climate projections, seasonal predictions, and significant sub-seasonal weather phenomena. For each of these three time-scales novel results are presented that indicate the nature (and limitations) of the models used to forecast the evolution, and illustrate the techniques adopted to reduce or cope with the forecast uncertainty. In particular, the contributions (i) appear to exemplify that in simple climate models uncertainties in radiative forcing outweigh uncertainties associated with ocean models, (ii) examine forecast skills for a state-of-the-art seasonal prediction system, and (iii) suggest that long-lived weather phenomena can help shape intra-seasonal climate variability. Finally, it is argued, that co-consideration of all these scales can enhance our understanding of the challenges associated with uncertainties in climate prediction. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Schwierz Cornelia Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland aut Appenzeller Christof Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut Davies Huw Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland aut Liniger Mark Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut Müller Wolfgang Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut Stocker Thomas Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland aut Yoshimori Masakazu Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 79/1-2(2006-11-01), 31-63 0165-0009 79:1-2<31 2006 79 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9076-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9076-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schwierz Cornelia Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Appenzeller Christof Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Davies Huw Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Liniger Mark Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Müller Wolfgang Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology (MeteoSwiss), MeteoSwiss, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Stocker Thomas Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yoshimori Masakazu Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 79/1-2(2006-11-01), 31-63 0165-0009 79:1-2<31 2006 79 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer