caa a22 4500 46791883X CHVBK 20180406152910.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-005-9002-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-005-9002-5 Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections [Elektronische Daten] [Sibyll Schaphoff, Wolfgang Lucht, Dieter Gerten, Stephen Sitch, Wolfgang Cramer, I. Prentice] This study investigates commonalities and differences in projected land biosphere carbon storage among climate change projections derived from one emission scenario by five different general circulation models (GCMs). Carbon storage is studied using a global biogeochemical process model of vegetation and soil that includes dynamic treatment of changes in vegetation composition, a recently enhanced version of the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM). Uncertainty in future terrestrial carbon storage due to differences in the climate projections is large. Changes by the end of the century range from −106 to +201 PgC, thus, even the sign of the response whether source or sink, is uncertain. Three out of five climate projections produce a land carbon source by the year 2100, one is approximately neutral and one a sink. A regional breakdown shows some robust qualitative features. Large areas of the boreal forest are shown as a future CO2 source, while a sink appears in the arctic. The sign of the response in tropical and sub-tropical ecosystems differs among models, due to the large variations in simulated precipitation patterns. The largest uncertainty is in the response of tropical rainforests of South America and Central Africa. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Schaphoff Sibyll Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut Lucht Wolfgang Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut Gerten Dieter Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut Sitch Stephen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut Cramer Wolfgang Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut Prentice I. QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, BS8 1RJ, Bristol, UK aut Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 74/1-3(2006-01-01), 97-122 0165-0009 74:1-3<97 2006 74 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9002-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9002-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schaphoff Sibyll Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lucht Wolfgang Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Gerten Dieter Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Sitch Stephen Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cramer Wolfgang Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Prentice I. QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Wills Memorial Building, BS8 1RJ, Bristol, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 74/1-3(2006-01-01), 97-122 0165-0009 74:1-3<97 2006 74 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer