caa a22 4500 46791897X CHVBK 20180406152911.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-005-9014-1 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-005-9014-1 Preston Benjamin Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 550, 22201, Arlington, Virginia, USA aut Risk-Based Reanalysis of the Effects of Climate Change on U.S. Cold-water Habitat [Elektronische Daten] [Benjamin Preston] Summary: A probabilistic risk assessment was conducted for the effects of future climate change on U.S. cold-water habitat. Damage functions for the loss of current cold-water fish habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountain region were integrated with probability distributions for U.S. June/July/August (JJA) temperature change using Monte Carlo techniques. Damage functions indicated temperature thresholds for incipient losses (≥5%) of cold-water habitat in the United States and the Rocky Mountains of 0.6 and 0.4 ∘C, respectively. Median impacts associated with different temperature distributions suggested habitat loss in 2025, 2050, and 2100 of approximately 10, 20, and 30%, respectively, for the United States and 20, 35, and 50%, respectively, in the Rocky Mountains. However, 2100 losses in excess of 60% and 90% were possible for the United States and the Rocky Mountains, respectively, albeit at low probabilities. The implementation of constraints on greenhouse gas emissions conforming to the WRE750/550/350 stabilization scenarios had little effect on reducing habitat loss out to 2050, but median effects in 2100 were reduced by up to 20, 30, and 60%, respectively. Increased focus on probabilistic risk assessment may be a profitable mechanism for enhancing understanding and communication of climate change impacts and, subsequently, risk management. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 76/1-2(2006-05-01), 91-119 0165-0009 76:1-2<91 2006 76 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9014-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9014-1 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Preston Benjamin Pew Center on Global Climate Change, 2101 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 550, 22201, Arlington, Virginia, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 76/1-2(2006-05-01), 91-119 0165-0009 76:1-2<91 2006 76 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer