caa a22 4500 467918988 CHVBK 20180406152911.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10584-005-9001-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10584-005-9001-6 Dettinger Michael U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Dept. 0224, 9500 Gilman Drive, 92093-0224, La Jolla, CA, USA aut A Component-Resampling Approach for Estimating Probability Distributions from Small Forecast Ensembles [Elektronische Daten] [Michael Dettinger] In many meteorological and climatological modeling applications, the availability of ensembles of predictions containing very large numbers of members would substantially ease statistical analyses and validations. This study describes and demonstrates an objective approach for generating large ensembles of "additional” realizations from smaller ensembles, where the additional ensemble members share important first-and second-order statistical characteristics and some dynamic relations within the original ensemble. By decomposing the original ensemble members into assuredly independent time-series components (using a form of principal component decomposition) that can then be resampled randomly and recombined, the component-resampling procedure generates additional time series that follow the large and small scale structures in the original ensemble members, without requiring any tuning by the user. The method is demonstrated by applications to operational medium-range weather forecast ensembles from a single NCEP weather model and application to a multi-model, multi-emission-scenarios ensemble of 21st Century climate-change projections. Springer Science+Business Media, Inc., 2006 Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 76/1-2(2006-05-01), 149-168 0165-0009 76:1-2<149 2006 76 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9001-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-9001-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Dettinger Michael U.S. Geological Survey, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Dept. 0224, 9500 Gilman Drive, 92093-0224, La Jolla, CA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Springer Netherlands 76/1-2(2006-05-01), 149-168 0165-0009 76:1-2<149 2006 76 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer