caa a22 4500 467922381 CHVBK 20180406152920.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060401xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00477-005-0030-5 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00477-005-0030-5 Probability of correct selection from lognormal and convective diffusion models based on the likelihood ratio [Elektronische Daten] [W. Strupczewski, H. Mitosek, K. Kochanek, V. Singh, S. Weglarczyk] The objective of the paper is to show that the use of a discrimination procedure for selecting a flood frequency model without the knowledge of its performance for the considered underlying distributions may lead to erroneous conclusions. The problem considered is one of choosing between lognormal (LN) and convective diffusion (CD) distributions for a given random sample of flood observations. The probability density functions of these distributions are similarly shaped in the range of the main probability mass and the discrepancies grow with the increase in the value of the coefficient of variation (C V ). This problem was addressed using the likelihood ratio (LR) procedure. Simulation experiments were performed to determine the probability of correct selection (PCS) for the LR method. Pseudo-random samples were generated for several combinations of sample sizes and the coefficient of variation values from each of the two distributions. Surprisingly, the PCS of the LN model was twice smaller than that of the CD model, rarely exceeding 50%. The results obtained from simulation were analyzed and compared both with those obtained using real data and with the results obtained from another selection procedure known as the QK method. The results from the QK are just the opposite to that of the LR procedure. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Selection procedures nationallicence Likelihood ratio nationallicence Scale invariance nationallicence Lognormal distribution nationallicence Convective diffusion distribution nationallicence Monte Carlo simulation nationallicence Probability of correct selection nationallicence Strupczewski W. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut Mitosek H. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut Kochanek K. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut Singh V. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 70803-6405, Baton Rouge, LA, USA aut Weglarczyk S. Institute of Water Engineering and Water Management, Cracow Technical University, Warszawska 24, 31-155, Cracow, Poland aut Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/3(2006-04-01), 152-163 1436-3240 20:3<152 2006 20 477 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0030-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0030-5 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Strupczewski W. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mitosek H. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Kochanek K. Water Resources Department, Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences, Ksiecia Janusza 64, 01-452, Warsaw, Poland aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Singh V. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Louisiana State University, 70803-6405, Baton Rouge, LA, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Weglarczyk S. Institute of Water Engineering and Water Management, Cracow Technical University, Warszawska 24, 31-155, Cracow, Poland aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/3(2006-04-01), 152-163 1436-3240 20:3<152 2006 20 477 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer