caa a22 4500 467922446 CHVBK 20180406152920.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00477-005-0020-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00477-005-0020-7 Grain yield reliability analysis with crop water demand uncertainty [Elektronische Daten] [A. Ganji, K. Ponnambalam, D. Khalili, M. Karamouz] A new method of reliability analysis for crop water production function is presented considering crop water demand uncertainty. The procedure uses an advanced first-order second moment (AFOSM) method in evaluating the crop yield failure probability. To determine the variance and the mean of actual evapotranspiration as the component of interest for AFOSM analysis, an explicit stochastic optimization model for optimal irrigation scheduling is developed based on the first and second-order moment analysis of the soil moisture state variables. As a result of the study, the violation probabilities of crop yield at different levels were computed from AFOSM method. Also using the optimization results and the double bounded density function estimation methodology, the weekly soil moisture density function is derived which can be used as a short term reliability index. The proposed approach does not involve any discretization of system variables. The results of reliability analysis and optimization model compare favorably with those obtained from simulation. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Irrigation scheduling nationallicence Crop water reliability analysis nationallicence Bounded stochastic difference equations nationallicence Approximate moments nationallicence Nonlinear optimization nationallicence Ganji A. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada aut Ponnambalam K. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada aut Khalili D. Water Engineering Department, Agricultural College, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran aut Karamouz M. School of Civil Engineering, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran aut Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/4(2006-05-01), 259-277 1436-3240 20:4<259 2006 20 477 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0020-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0020-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ganji A. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Ponnambalam K. Department of Systems Design Engineering, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Khalili D. Water Engineering Department, Agricultural College, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Karamouz M. School of Civil Engineering, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/4(2006-05-01), 259-277 1436-3240 20:4<259 2006 20 477 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer