caa a22 4500 467922578 CHVBK 20180406152921.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00477-006-0032-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00477-006-0032-y Assessment of flood forecasting lead time based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach [Elektronische Daten] [A. Heidari, B. Saghafian, R. Maknoon] Real time updating of rainfall-runoff (RR) models is traditionally performed by state-space formulation in the context of flood forecasting systems. In this paper, however, we examine applicability of generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach in real time modification of forecasts. Real time updating and parameter uncertainty analysis was conducted for Abmark catchment, a part of the great Karkheh basin in south west of Iran. A conceptual-distributed RR model, namely ModClark, was used for basin simulation, such that the basin's hydrograph was determined by the superposition of runoff generated by individual cells in a raster-based discretization. In real time updating of RR model by GLUE method, prior and posterior likelihoods were computed using forecast errors that were obtained from the results of behavioral models and real time recorded discharges. Then, prior and posterior likelihoods were applied to modify forecast confidence limits in each time step. Calibration of parameters was performed using historical data while distribution of parameters was modified in real time based on new data records. Two scenarios of rainfall forecast including prefect-rainfall-forecast and no-rainfall-forecast were assumed in absence of a robust rainfall forecast model in the study catchment. The results demonstrated that GLUE application could offer an acceptable lead time for peak discharge forecast at the expense of high computational demand. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Real time updating nationallicence GLUE nationallicence Uncertainty nationallicence Flood forecast nationallicence Distributed rainfall-runoff model nationallicence AK : Loss rate coefficient at the beginning of the time interval nationallicence AL : Potential loss rate in mm/h during the time interval nationallicence C : Accumulated loss (mm) nationallicence d max : Maximum travel distance to the catchment outlet nationallicence DL : Amount of initial accumulated rain loss (mm) nationallicence DK : Incremental increase in the loss rate coefficient during the first DL of accumulated loss nationallicence ER : Exponent of precipitation that reflects the influence of precipitation rate on basin average loss characteristics and varies from 0.0 to 1.0 nationallicence L (θ i | Y ) : Performance measure for i-th model conditioned on the observed discharges of Y nationallicence N : Parameter of equation nationallicence O t : Observed discharge at t time step nationallicence $$\bar O$$ : Average observed discharge during flood period nationallicence P : The hourly precipitation in mm nationallicence RK : Corresponding ratio for snow loss nationallicence RL : Ratio of rain loss coefficient that corresponding to 10mm more of accumulated loss nationallicence Q t : Simulated discharge at time step t nationallicence $$\bar Q$$ : Average simulated discharge during flood period nationallicence SR : Start values of rainfall loss coefficients (mm/h) nationallicence SS : Start values of snowmelt loss coefficients (mm/h) nationallicence t c : Concentration time nationallicence w t : Weight of discharge corresponding to time step t nationallicence σ obs 2 : Observed variance for the period of flood hydrograph nationallicence η : Scale coefficient for rescaling of the posterior likelihood nationallicence Heidari A. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut Saghafian B. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut Maknoon R. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/5(2006-07-01), 363-380 1436-3240 20:5<363 2006 20 477 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-006-0032-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-006-0032-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Heidari A. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Saghafian B. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Maknoon R. Civil and Environmental Department, AmirKabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Springer-Verlag 20/5(2006-07-01), 363-380 1436-3240 20:5<363 2006 20 477 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer