caa a22 4500 467927952 CHVBK 20180406152935.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10109-005-0015-4 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10109-005-0015-4 Forecasting the impact of transport improvements on commuting and residential choice [Elektronische Daten] [J. Elhorst, Jan Oosterhaven] This paper develops a probabilistic, competing-destinations, assignment model that predicts changes in the spatial pattern of the working population as a result of transport improvements. The choice of residence is explained by a new non-parametric model, which represents an alternative to the popular multinominal logit model. Travel times between zones are approximated by a normal distribution function with different mean and variance for each pair of zones, whereas previous models only use average travel times. The model's forecast error of the spatial distribution of the Dutch working population is 7% when tested on 1998 base-year data. To incorporate endogenous changes in its causal variables, an almost ideal demand system is estimated to explain the choice of transport mode, and a new economic geography inter-industry model (RAEM) is estimated to explain the spatial distribution of employment. In the application, the model is used to forecast the impact of six mutually exclusive Dutch core-periphery railway proposals in the projection year 2020. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Commuting nationallicence Migration nationallicence Rail infrastructure nationallicence The Netherlands nationallicence C25 nationallicence C53 nationallicence J61 nationallicence R23 nationallicence Elhorst J. Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, The Netherlands aut Oosterhaven Jan Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, The Netherlands aut Journal of Geographical Systems Springer-Verlag 8/1(2006-03-01), 39-59 1435-5930 8:1<39 2006 8 10109 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0015-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-005-0015-4 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Elhorst J. Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Oosterhaven Jan Department of Economics, University of Groningen, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Geographical Systems Springer-Verlag 8/1(2006-03-01), 39-59 1435-5930 8:1<39 2006 8 10109 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer