caa a22 4500 467927987 CHVBK 20180406152935.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s10109-006-0027-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s10109-006-0027-8 A swash-backwash model of the single epidemic wave [Elektronische Daten] [Andrew Cliff, Peter Haggett] While there is a large literature on the form of epidemic waves in the time domain, models of their structure and shape in the spatial domain remain poorly developed. This paper concentrates on the changing spatial distribution of an epidemic wave over time and presents a simple method for identifying the leading and trailing edges of the spatial advance and retreat of such waves. Analysis of edge characteristics is used to (a) disaggregate waves into ‘swash' and ‘backwash' stages, (b) measure the phase transitions of areas from susceptible, S, through infective, I, to recovered, R, status (S → I → R) as dimensionless integrals and (c) estimate a spatial version of the basic reproduction number, R 0. The methods used are illustrated by application to measles waves in Iceland over a 60-year period from 1915 to 1974. Extensions of the methods for use with more complex waves are possible through modifying the threshold values used to define the start and end points of an event. Springer-Verlag, 2006 Spatial diffusion nationallicence Waves nationallicence Epidemics nationallicence Measles nationallicence Iceland nationallicence Cliff Andrew Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK aut Haggett Peter Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Bristol, Royal Fort House, BS8 1UJ, Bristol, UK aut Journal of Geographical Systems Springer-Verlag 8/3(2006-09-01), 227-252 1435-5930 8:3<227 2006 8 10109 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-006-0027-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10109-006-0027-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cliff Andrew Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, CB2 3EN, Cambridge, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Haggett Peter Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Bristol, Royal Fort House, BS8 1UJ, Bristol, UK aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Journal of Geographical Systems Springer-Verlag 8/3(2006-09-01), 227-252 1435-5930 8:3<227 2006 8 10109 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer