caa a22 4500 467935955 CHVBK 20180406152957.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-8611-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-8611-7 New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data [Elektronische Daten] [G. Grünthal, R. Wahlström] A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified Mw magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2m/s2 for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50years), 0.4s (0.8 and 1.5m/s2) and 1.0s (0.3 and 0.5m/s2) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I0 = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5m/s2), and 0.4s (>2m/s2) and 1.0s (about 0.8m/s2) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2m/s2 and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2-6.3°E and 50.8-50.9°N, i.e., east of Aachen. Springer, 2006 seismic hazard nationallicence Cologne/Aachen area nationallicence zonation models nationallicence maximum magnitude nationallicence parameter uncertainty nationallicence Grünthal G. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg F454, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Wahlström R. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg F454, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 159-176 0921-030X 38:1-2<159 2006 38 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8611-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8611-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Grünthal G. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg F454, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wahlström R. GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg F454, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 159-176 0921-030X 38:1-2<159 2006 38 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer