caa a22 4500 467936021 CHVBK 20180406152957.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7 A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks [Elektronische Daten] [Heiko Apel, Annegret Thieken, Bruno Merz, Günter Blöschl] In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the "German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on "Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management. Springer, 2006 flood risk nationallicence probabilistic model nationallicence flood damage estimation nationallicence levee failure nationallicence a.s.l. : above sea level nationallicence AMS : annual maximum series nationallicence BL : levee breach location nationallicence CDF : cumulated probability density function nationallicence CPU : central processor unit nationallicence LC : levee crest nationallicence LF : levee foot nationallicence MC : Monte Carlo nationallicence QD : direct discharge nationallicence QDmax : maximum direct discharge nationallicence QDnorm : normalised direct discharge nationallicence Q LC : discharge at levee crest nationallicence t norm : normalised time nationallicence t Qdmax : time of maximum direct discharge nationallicence V pol : volume of polder nationallicence Apel Heiko Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Thieken Annegret Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Merz Bruno Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Blöschl Günter Institute of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Austria aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 79-100 0921-030X 38:1-2<79 2006 38 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8603-7 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Apel Heiko Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Thieken Annegret Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Merz Bruno Section Engineering Hydrology, GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Blöschl Günter Institute of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Austria aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 79-100 0921-030X 38:1-2<79 2006 38 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer