caa a22 4500 467936099 CHVBK 20180406152957.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-8599-z doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-8599-z Impact of Climate Change on the Regional Hydrology - Scenario-Based Modelling Studies in the German Rhine Catchment [Elektronische Daten] [Lucas Menzel, Annegret Thieken, Daniel Schwandt, Gerd Bürger] The aim of the study is an impact analysis of global climate change on regional hydrology with special emphasis on discharge conditions and floods. The investigations are focussed on the major part of the German Rhine catchment with a drainage area of approx. 110,000km2. This area is subdivided into 23 subcatchments. In a first step, the hydrological model HBV-D serves to simulate runoff conditions under present climate for the individual subbasins. Simulated, large scale atmospheric fields, provided by two different Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and driven by the emission scenario IS95a ("business as usual”) are then used as input to the method of expanded downscaling (EDS). EDS delivers local time series of scenario climate as input to HBV-D. In a final step, the investigations are focussed on the assessment of possible future runoff conditions under the impact of climate change. The study indicates a potential increase in precipitation, mean runoff and flood discharge for small return intervals. However, the uncertainty range that originates from the application of the whole model chain and two different GCMs is high. This leads to high cumulative uncertainties, which do not allow conclusions to be drawn on the development of future extreme floods. Springer, 2006 climate change nationallicence regional hydrology nationallicence floods nationallicence uncertainty nationallicence Menzel Lucas Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109, Kassel, Germany aut Thieken Annegret GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam, Germany aut Schwandt Daniel Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068, Koblenz, Germany aut Bürger Gerd Meteorological Institute, Free University, 12165, Berlin, Germany aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 45-61 0921-030X 38:1-2<45 2006 38 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8599-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-8599-z text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Menzel Lucas Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kurt-Wolters-Str. 3, 34109, Kassel, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Thieken Annegret GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ), Telegrafenberg, 14473, Potsdam, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Schwandt Daniel Federal Institute of Hydrology, 56068, Koblenz, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bürger Gerd Meteorological Institute, Free University, 12165, Berlin, Germany aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 38/1-2(2006-05-01), 45-61 0921-030X 38:1-2<45 2006 38 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer