caa a22 4500 467936145 CHVBK 20180406152957.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060901xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-1922-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-1922-x Assessment of Risk due to Debris Flow Events: A Case Study in Central Taiwan [Elektronische Daten] [Gwo-Fong Lin, Lu-Hsien Chen, Jun-Nan Lai] In this paper, based on the concepts of uncertainty and reliability analyses, a method used for assessment of risk due to debris flow events is proposed. First, procedures for obtaining the configuration of debris-flow fans are presented. Then, the parameters affecting the configuration of debris-flow fans are identified and their corresponding means and standard deviations are derived. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the Shih-Pa-Chung Creek in central Taiwan. The expected deposition thickness at any point in the deposition area is computed and then the contours of risk for the 50-year and 100-year events are constructed. Regarding the expected deposition thickness, it is found that the closer the distance from the canyon mouth, the larger the debris-flow thickness becomes. The results also show that the contours of risk are of the shape of an ellipse similar to the shape of deposition area, and the risk at a point decreases with increasing distance of that point from the canyon mouth. In addition, when the return period of rainfall event is fixed, the variation in risk decreases as the distance from the canyon mouth increases. For the assessment of risk due to debris flow events, the proposed method is recommended as an alternative to the existing methods, because the influence of all the uncertainty of the parameters is considered. Springer, 2006 risk assessment nationallicence debris flow nationallicence deposition area nationallicence reliability nationallicence uncertainty nationallicence Lin Gwo-Fong Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617, Taipei, Taiwan aut Chen Lu-Hsien Department of Information Management, Diwan College of Management, 72141, Madou, Tainan, Taiwan aut Lai Jun-Nan Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617, Taipei, Taiwan aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 39/1(2006-09-01), 1-14 0921-030X 39:1<1 2006 39 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-1922-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-1922-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lin Gwo-Fong Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617, Taipei, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Chen Lu-Hsien Department of Information Management, Diwan College of Management, 72141, Madou, Tainan, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lai Jun-Nan Department of Civil Engineering, National Taiwan University, 10617, Taipei, Taiwan aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 39/1(2006-09-01), 1-14 0921-030X 39:1<1 2006 39 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer