caa a22 4500 467936404 CHVBK 20180406152958.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-5182-6 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-5182-6 Beguería Santiago Division Landscape Dynamics, GIS and Hydrology - Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 80115, 3508, Utrecht, TC, The Netherlands aut Validation and Evaluation of Predictive Models in Hazard Assessment and Risk Management [Elektronische Daten] [Santiago Beguería] The paper deals with the validation and evaluation of mathematical models in natural hazard analysis, with a special focus on establishing their predictive power. Although most of the tools and statistics available are common to general classification models, some peculiarities arise in the case of hazard assessment. This is due to the fact that the target for validation, the propensity to develop a dangerous characteristic, is not really known and must be estimated from a (usually) very small sample. This implies that the two types of errors (false positives and false negatives) should be given different meanings. Related to this, a very frequent situation is the presence of prevalence (different proportion of positive and negative cases) in the sample. It is shown that sample prevalence can have a dramatic effect in some very common validation statistics, like the confusion matrix and model efficiency. Here some statistics based on the confusion matrix are presented and discussed, and the use of threshold-independent approaches (especially the ROC plot) is shown. The ROC plot is also proposed as a convenient tool for decision-taking in a risk management context. A general scheme for hazard predictive modeling is finally proposed. Springer, 2006 geomorphological hazard modelling nationallicence probabilistic models nationallicence prediction errors nationallicence accuracy assessment nationallicence decision support nationallicence decision threshold nationallicence ROC plot nationallicence Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/3(2006-03-01), 315-329 0921-030X 37:3<315 2006 37 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-5182-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-5182-6 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Beguería Santiago Division Landscape Dynamics, GIS and Hydrology - Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 80115, 3508, Utrecht, TC, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/3(2006-03-01), 315-329 0921-030X 37:3<315 2006 37 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer