caa a22 4500 46793648X CHVBK 20180406152958.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-6141-y doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-6141-y Predicting Lahar-Inundation Zones: Case Study in West Mount Pinatubo, Philippines [Elektronische Daten] [Emmanuel Carranza, Ofelia Castro] This paper demonstrates techniques for pre-eruption prediction of lahar-inundation zones in areas where a volcano has not erupted within living memory and/or where baseline geological information about past lahars could be scarce or investigations to delimit past lahars might be incomplete. A lahar source (or proximal lahar-inundation) zone is predicted based on ratio of vertical descent to horizontal run-out of eruptive deposits that spawn lahars. Immediate post-eruption distal lahar-inundation zones are predicted based on "pre-eruption” distal lahar-inundation zones and on spatial factors derived from a digital elevation model. Susceptibility to distal lahar-inundation is estimated by weights-of-evidence, by logistic regression and by evidential belief functions. Predictive techniques are applied using a geographic information system and are tested in western part of Pinatubo volcano (Philippines). Predictive maps are compared with a forecast volcanic-hazard map through validation against a field-based volcanic-hazard map. The predictive model of proximal lahar-inundation zone has "true positive” prediction accuracy, "true negative” prediction accuracy, "false positive” prediction error and "false negative” prediction error that are similar to those of the forecast volcanic-hazard map. The predictive models of distal lahar inundation zones have higher "true positive” prediction accuracy and lower "false negative” prediction error than the forecast volcanic-hazard map, although the latter has higher "true negative” prediction accuracy and lower "false positive” prediction error than the former. The results illustrate utility of proposed predictive techniques in providing geo-information could be used, howbeit with caution, for planning to mitigate potential lahar hazards well ahead of an eruption that could generate substantial source materials for lahar formation. Springer, 2006 lahars nationallicence predictive modeling nationallicence weights-of-evidence nationallicence logistic regression nationallicence evidential belief functions nationallicence DEM nationallicence GIS nationallicence Carranza Emmanuel Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Hengelosestraat 99, P.O. Box 67500, Enschede, AA, The Netherlands aut Castro Ofelia Mapping Department, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), Makati, Philippines aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/3(2006-03-01), 331-372 0921-030X 37:3<331 2006 37 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-6141-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-6141-y text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Carranza Emmanuel Department of Earth Systems Analysis, International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), Hengelosestraat 99, P.O. Box 67500, Enschede, AA, The Netherlands aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Castro Ofelia Mapping Department, National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), Makati, Philippines aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/3(2006-03-01), 331-372 0921-030X 37:3<331 2006 37 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer