caa a22 4500 467936552 CHVBK 20180406152959.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8 A Climatology Model for Forecasting Typhoon Rainfall in Taiwan [Elektronische Daten] [Cheng-Shang Lee, Li-Rung Huang, Horng-Syi Shen, Shi-Ting Wang] The continuous torrential rain associated with a typhoon often caused flood, landslide or debris flow, leading to serious damages to Taiwan. Thus, a usable scheme to forecast rainfall amount during a typhoon period is highly desired. An analysis using hourly rainfall amounts taken at 371 stations during 1989-2001 showed that the topographical lifting of typhoon circulation played an important role in producing heavier rainfall. A climatology model for typhoon rainfall, which considered the topographical lifting and the variations of rain rate with radius was then developed. The model could provide hourly rainfall at any station or any river basin for a given typhoon center. The cumulative rainfall along the forecasted typhoon track was also available. The results showed that the R2 value between the model estimated and the observed cumulative rainfall during the typhoon period for the Dan-Shui (DSH) and Kao-Ping (KPS) River Basins reached 0.70 and 0.81, respectively. The R2 values decreased slightly to 0.69 and 0.73 if individual stations were considered. However, the values decreased significantly to 0.40 and 0.51 for 3-hourly rainfalls, indicating the strong influence of the transient features in producing the heavier rainfall. In addition, the climatology model can only provide the average conditions. The characteristics in individual typhoons should be considered when applying the model in real-time operation. For example, the model could give reasonable cumulative rainfall amount at DSH before Nakri (2002) made landfall on Taiwan, but overestimated the rainfall after Nakri made landfall and weakened with significant reduction in convection. Springer, 2006 typhoon nationallicence typhoon rainfall nationallicence rainfall climatology nationallicence quantitative precipitation forecast nationallicence typhoon landfall nationallicence topographical effect nationallicence Lee Cheng-Shang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut Huang Li-Rung Meteorology Division, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut Shen Horng-Syi Meteorology Division, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut Wang Shi-Ting Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, ROC aut Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/1-2(2006-02-01), 87-105 0921-030X 37:1-2<87 2006 37 11069 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-005-4658-8 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Lee Cheng-Shang Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Huang Li-Rung Meteorology Division, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Shen Horng-Syi Meteorology Division, National S&T Center for Disaster Reduction, Taipei, Taiwan, ROC aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wang Shi-Ting Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan, ROC aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Natural Hazards Kluwer Academic Publishers 37/1-2(2006-02-01), 87-105 0921-030X 37:1-2<87 2006 37 11069 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer