caa a22 4500 467938164 CHVBK 20180406153004.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e20060101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/s00703-005-0135-x doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/s00703-005-0135-x Lightning peak current estimation using a system identification approach [Elektronische Daten] [T. L. T. Wern, R. N. Mukerjee] Summary: A system identification-based lightning peak current estimation algorithm using upper-air radiosonde observations is developed. The preceding convective and precipitative process leading to thunder cloud formation followed by the cloud electrification and the leader processes together with return stroke and the discharge process, is identified by considering it as a deterministic dynamic system, whose undisturbed and unmeasurable output signal - the lightning peak current, is contaminated with a stochastic disturbance. The model parameters determined thus, are used to predict the likely temporal lightning return stroke peak current magnitudes. Two alternative parametric estimation models namely Autoregressive with Exogeneous Input (ARX) and Autoregressive with Moving-Average Exogeneous Input (ARMAX) are used to estimate model parameters of the pilot study area and predict the likely lightning return stroke peak current in each case. The relative performances of the models are compared to determine the best model for application in 12-hour and 24-hour ahead predictions. For a short-term (12 hour) prediction, ARMAX2921 giving a best fit of 78.8429% turns out to be the most suitable model. For a longer (24 hour) prediction, the ARX291, giving a best fit of 75.0181% emerges to be the suitable model. These preliminary results indicate that lightning peak current may be estimated to a good performance using upper-air radiosonde observations. Springer-Verlag/Wien, 2005 Wern T. L. T. Department of Electrical/Electronics, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia aut Mukerjee R. N. Department of Electrical/Electronics, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia aut Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Springer-Verlag 91/1-4(2006-01-01), 25-44 0177-7971 91:1-4<25 2006 91 703 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0135-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0135-x text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Wern T. L. T. Department of Electrical/Electronics, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Mukerjee R. N. Department of Electrical/Electronics, College of Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Selangor, Malaysia aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Springer-Verlag 91/1-4(2006-01-01), 25-44 0177-7971 91:1-4<25 2006 91 703 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer