caa a22 4500 467980446 CHVBK 20180323112517.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19900301xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF02706317 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF02706317 The natural rate versus the hysteresis hypothesis: A century of prices and unemployment in the U.S. and U.K [Elektronische Daten] [Rod Cross, Harold Hutchinson, Serena Yeoward] Conclusion: The point of this note has been to appraise different accounts of the relationship between prices and unemployment in relation to the test of explaining the time series data for prices and unemployment in the U.S. and U.K. over the last century or more. The procedure adopted was to fix a specification of the different hypotheses before looking at the data, not to pursue a specification search for the "best” description of the data generation processes in the U.S. and the U.K. The hypothesis which outperforms the others in relation to tests employed is the hysteresis hypothesis, there being some support for the original Phillips Curve hypothesis (which belongs to the same species), but none for the natural rate hypothesis. Given the Duhem problem, it is not possible to assert conclusively that the natural rate hypothesis cannot be saved by the re-specification of auxiliary hypotheses, but this is in need of demonstration. The estimates of the general unrestricted form of the prices-unemployment relationship suggest that the conditions necessary for estimating relationships in the first and second differences of the price level are violated. Possibly as a result of this, the estimates of the natural rate and hysteresis relationships are unsatisfactory in that the residuals contain autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity. Given this, it would not be in order to draw strong conclusions from the results reported. What can be said is that the evidence in this note gives more support to the hysteresis hypothesis that the change in unemployment, rather than the level effect of the natural rate hypothesis, stimulates changes in the rate of inflation. Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel, 1990 Cross Rod aut Hutchinson Harold aut Yeoward Serena aut Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Springer-Verlag 126/1(1990-03-01), 156-164 0043-2636 126:1<156 1990 126 10290 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02706317 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF02706317 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Cross Rod aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Hutchinson Harold aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Yeoward Serena aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv Springer-Verlag 126/1(1990-03-01), 156-164 0043-2636 126:1<156 1990 126 10290 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer