caa a22 4500 469037369 CHVBK 20180323132759.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00143250 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00143250 Bloomfield Peter Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Box 8203, Raleigh, NC 27695-8203, U.S.A. aut Trends in global temperature [Elektronische Daten] [Peter Bloomfield] Statistical models consisting of a trend plus serially correlated noise may be fitted to observed climate data such as global surface temperature, the trend and noise representing systematic change and other variations, respectively. When such a model is fitted, the estimated character of the noise determines the precision of the estimated trend, and hence the precision of the estimate of the magnitude of the systematic change in the variable considered. The results of fitting such models to global temperature imply that there is uncertainty in the amount of temperature change over the past century of up to ± 0.2 °C, but that the change of around one half of a degree Celsius is significantly different from zero. The statistical models for climate variability also imply that the observed temperature data provide only imprecise information about the climate sensitivity. This is defined here as the equilibrium response of global temperature to a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. The temperature changes observed to date are compatible with a wide range of climate sensitivities, from 0.7 °C to 2.2 °C. When data uncertainties are taken into account, the interval widens even further. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992 Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/1(1992-05-01), 1-16 0165-0009 21:1<1 1992 21 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143250 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00143250 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Bloomfield Peter Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, Box 8203, Raleigh, NC 27695-8203, U.S.A aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/1(1992-05-01), 1-16 0165-0009 21:1<1 1992 21 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer