caa a22 4500 469037393 CHVBK 20180323132759.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00139727 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00139727 Climate spectra and detecting climate change [Elektronische Daten] [Peter Bloomfield, Douglas Nychka] Part of the debate over possible climate changes centers on the possibility that the changes observed over the previous century are natural in origin. This raises the question of how large a change could be expected as a result of natural variability. If the climate measurement of interest is modelled as a stationary (or related) Gaussian time series, this question can be answered in terms of (a) the way in which change is estimated, and (b) the spectrum of the time series. These computations are illustrated for 128 years of global temperature data using some simple measures of change and for a variety of possible temperature spectra. The results highlight the time scales on which it is important to know the magnitude of natural variability. The uncertainties in estimates of trend are most sensitive to fluctuations in the temperature series with periods from approximately 50 to 500 years. For some of the temperature spectra, it was found that the standard error of the least squares trend estimate was 3 times the standard error derived under the naïve assumption that the temperature series was uncorrelated. The observed trend differs from zero by more than 3 times the largest of the calculated standard errors, however, and is therefore highly significant. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992 Bloomfield Peter Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 27695-8203, Raleigh, NC, USA aut Nychka Douglas Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 27695-8203, Raleigh, NC, USA aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/3(1992-07-01), 275-287 0165-0009 21:3<275 1992 21 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139727 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139727 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Bloomfield Peter Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 27695-8203, Raleigh, NC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nychka Douglas Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University, 27695-8203, Raleigh, NC, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/3(1992-07-01), 275-287 0165-0009 21:3<275 1992 21 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer