caa a22 4500 469037415 CHVBK 20180323132759.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920701xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00139729 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00139729 Bassett Jr. Gilbert Department of Economics (m/c144), University of Illinois at Chicago, Box 802451, 60680-2451, Chicago, Il, USA aut Breaking recent global temperature records [Elektronische Daten] [Gilbert Bassett Jr.] Global surface temperature was a record in 1988. What is the probability that this record will be surpassed in the next few years? Answers are provided given a variety of simple statistical models for temperature. The answers illustrate how record breaking is influenced by alternative model specifications. Estimates for the probability of a record are shown to range widely. If annual temperature is independent and identically distributed then a new record is unlikely. But probabilities increase rapidly if there is a trend or autocorrelation. Estimates of the probability of a record using data on global temperature suggest that another record in the next few years would not be a rare event. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992 Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/3(1992-07-01), 303-315 0165-0009 21:3<303 1992 21 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139729 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00139729 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Bassett Jr Gilbert Department of Economics (m/c144), University of Illinois at Chicago, Box 802451, 60680-2451, Chicago, Il, USA aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 21/3(1992-07-01), 303-315 0165-0009 21:3<303 1992 21 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer