caa a22 4500 469037679 CHVBK 20180323132800.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920201xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00154170 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00154170 Forest response to climatic change: Effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections [Elektronische Daten] [Daniel Botkin, Robert Nisbet] Computer projections suggest that forests may respond dramatically and rapidly to global warming, with significant and readily observable changes in forests of mid-latitudes occurring by the turn of the century or shortly thereafter. These results raise the question: how reliable are the projections? Sensitivity analyses reported in this paper suggest that projections of forest response to global warming will be generally insensitive to errors of 10% in parameter estimation. Even where projections are sensitive quantitatively, they are not changed in timing. Projections are insensitive to the choice of baseline weather records, unless the warmest or coldest decades of the 20th century are used as baselines. Kluwer Academic Publishers, 1992 Botkin Daniel Dept. of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, 93106, Santa Barbara, CA, U.S.A. aut Nisbet Robert Dept. of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, 93106, Santa Barbara, CA, U.S.A. aut Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 20/2(1992-02-01), 87-111 0165-0009 20:2<87 1992 20 10584 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00154170 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00154170 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Botkin Daniel Dept. of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, 93106, Santa Barbara, CA, U.S.A aut NATIONALLICENCE 700 1- Nisbet Robert Dept. of Biological Sciences and Environmental Studies Program, University of California, 93106, Santa Barbara, CA, U.S.A aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Climatic Change Kluwer Academic Publishers 20/2(1992-02-01), 87-111 0165-0009 20:2<87 1992 20 10584 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer