caa a22 4500 469064420 CHVBK 20180323132903.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920101xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00890090 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00890090 Shurtz Robert 1200 California St., 94109, San Francisco, California aut Pseudo-fractal interpolation for risk analysis [Elektronische Daten] [Robert Shurtz] This paper describes a new method of analyzing the risk incurred when the outcome of a decision depends on interpolated values, for example, on the flow through an aquifer sparsely sampled for permeability or on the ratio of waste to ore in a mineral deposit sparsely sampled for grade. The method uses large families of interpolations constructed between sample values using adaptations of the well-known midpoint displacement method for generating pseudo-fractional Brownian motion trajectories. The parameters defining each family are chosen interactively by specialists to incorporate their expert knowledge. Each family, or ensemble, then defines a population of values for any global characteristic (functional) such as flow rate or waste ratio. The probabilities of various outcomes are estimated by counting them and calculating their ratios. For example, if 900 out of 1000 are acceptable the chance of success is estimated to be 90%. International Association for Mathematical Geology, 1992 correlation nationallicence fractal functions nationallicence fractional Brownian bridges nationallicence hydrology nationallicence expert input nationallicence mining nationallicence Monte Carlo nationallicence nonstationary nationallicence probability nationallicence random walk nationallicence reservoir engineering nationallicence risk analysis nationallicence sampling nationallicence simulation nationallicence stochastic process nationallicence trajectory nationallicence waste cleanup nationallicence Mathematical Geology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 24/1(1992-01-01), 99-128 0882-8121 24:1<99 1992 24 11004 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00890090 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00890090 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Shurtz Robert 1200 California St., 94109, San Francisco, California aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Mathematical Geology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 24/1(1992-01-01), 99-128 0882-8121 24:1<99 1992 24 11004 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer