caa a22 4500 469064773 CHVBK 20180323132904.0 cr unu---uuuuu 170328e19920501xx s 000 0 eng 10.1007/BF00891268 doi (NATIONALLICENCE)springer-10.1007/BF00891268 Ho Chih-Hsiang Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, 89154, Las Vegas, Nevada aut Risk assessment for the Yucca Mountain high-level nuclear waste repository site: Estimation of volcanic disruption [Elektronische Daten] [Chih-Hsiang Ho] In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10−6/yr, 1.26×10−5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 104 years is (1.0×10−3, 6.7×10−3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame. International Association for Mathematical Geology, 1992 Bayesian analysis nationallicence nonhomogeneous Poisson process nationallicence prior distribution nationallicence volcanic risk nationallicence Weibull distribution nationallicence Mathematical Geology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 24/4(1992-05-01), 347-364 0882-8121 24:4<347 1992 24 11004 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00891268 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI 1 research-article jats NATIONALLICENCE 856 40 https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00891268 text/html Onlinezugriff via DOI NATIONALLICENCE 100 1- Ho Chih-Hsiang Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, 4505 Maryland Parkway, 89154, Las Vegas, Nevada aut NATIONALLICENCE 773 0- Mathematical Geology Kluwer Academic Publishers-Plenum Publishers 24/4(1992-05-01), 347-364 0882-8121 24:4<347 1992 24 11004 Metadata rights reserved Springer special CC-BY-NC licence nationallicence BK010053 XK010053 XK010000 NATIONALLICENCE NATIONALLICENCE NL-springer